Anthony Goldbloom — The Jobs We'll Lose to Machines

Kaggle CEO Anthony Goldbloom 2016 TED Talk is the most analytically rigorous treatment of AI and labor market disruption available in the format. His central framework: AI is good at frequently repeated tasks that can be learned from historical patterns, and poor at novel situations requiring judgment from first principles. The resulting prediction — which has held up reasonably well through 2026 — is that AI disrupts occupations (collections of tasks) differently from jobs (collections of tasks): high-frequency tasks within a job are automated while the remaining tasks are augmented. The talk is useful precisely because it makes specific, testable predictions rather than vague claims about transformation. The limitation: Goldbloom did not anticipate the generative AI shift that made novel-situation reasoning more accessible to AI systems than his 2016 framework predicted. Watch alongside more recent talks for the updated picture.